If you think you could escape the Florida Writes portion of the FCAT than think again. Especially as it pertains to compare and contrast and causal-effectual relationships. Or at least that’s how the next few minutes of your life will feel like. We can look at head-to-head all you want (which by the way is STILL is the most important and a record that Armwood leads comfortably the last 10 years.), but let’s look closer though at something that doesn’t leave much room for debate. That’s the numbers themselves from 2010 and 2011. Let’s see if we can’t find some answers to the now growing list of questions pertaining to both (good and bad.) There’s strikingly similar numbers on both sides (offensively and defensively) for each team. There’s also definitive proof as it pertains to one team that injuries (not just graduation) really DO matter. Even to the elite teams that have multiple weapons.
The Numbers…(Armwood Team Offense)
Last season, Armwood finished with 5,400 yards of offense, while going 14-1 losing to Lincoln in the 4A State Finals 17-14. The Hawks rushed for 3,180 yards while accumulating 2,220 yards in the air. The averages roughly to 212ypg and 148ypg respectively. In comparison with this season, Coach Cal’s Squad (through 13 games) has rushed for 2, 265 yards via the ground attack and 1, 215 yards up top averaging 174ypg and 93ypg respectively.
The Analysis…
Suffice it to say the Hawks aren’t going to hit those averages unless they complete destroy their next two opponents Bartram Trail and either Miami Central or Mainland. Neither of which have defenses that scream “ole” on that side of the ball. We all know that the Hawks aren’t exactly a model of efficiency on offense at the moment, but unless I’m missing something the defense always HAS BEEN and WILL BE the calling card of this year’s version of Armwood. I think we can already point to the fact that no Josh Grady and ESPECIALLY no Ronnie Thomas has been downright hurtful to the ebb and flow of the play calling to the execution even.
The Numbers…(Armwood Scoring vs. Strength of Schedule)
In 2010, the Hawks lit the scoreboard up for 48TD’s rushing and 24TD’s passing. This season Armwood has 36 and 15. The Win-Loss of their opponents in 2010 was 94-71 (57%) while this season (through 13 games) is a slightly better 82-57 for a 60% winning average. Their points for and against in ’10 was 563-122 in comparison with this year’s impressive 505-97.
The Analysis…
It should be noted that Armwood played Leto and Strawberry Crest who were a combined 1-20 this season. Because they are district games doesn’t make a difference for the sake of this comparison, but you can read further into them if you so choose. Besides, Armwood beat both of those teams by a combined score of 148-0. (I believe we can make the statement that’s taking care of business don’t you think?) It actually opens up the door for another argument about what these numbers look like taking away the gaudy numbers from those two, but we need to move on in my opinion. Armwood’s 1-0 vs. their out-of-state competition and that’s a pretty big win out in Vegas to start the season.
The Numbers…(Plant Team Offense)
Plant totaled 6,068 yards with 2,982 on the ground and 3,086 in the passing game finishing their season with a loss in the 5A State Finals to St. Thomas Aquinas. Those numbers average to about 198ypg rushing and 205ypg through the air. Looking at Plant’s 2011 Season through 13 games, they’ve rushed for 2, 560 yards and thrown for 2, 759. Those numbers roughly average 197ypg on the ground and 212ypg through the air.
The Analysis…
My head is already swimming with these numbers and I need to face the fact that I can barely add 2+2, but I can certainly recognize there’s an eerily similar balance to this year’s Panther Offense in comparison to 2010. The big names may be gone, but the production as a squad has remained virtually the same.
The Numbers…(Plant Scoring vs. Strength of Schedule)
In 2010, Plant’s Opponents were 116-64 translating into a 64% clip.This season the Panthers are facing opposition that is 101-50 that equates into a winning percentage at 67%.Their points for and against last season was 452-223 while this season improving in both directions scoring 497 points while allowing 171.
The Analysis…
Should be noted this season there wasn’t a single team below 4-6 on Plant’s Schedule. Again, their one-loss IS to Armwood and that was a shutout. I believe they say “Scoreboard folks.” If memory serves correct though, defense and special teams pretty much won that game for Armwood too correct? Plant is now 1-1 vs. their out-of-state competition having lost to Abilene and technically beating Bergen Catholic on the road…albeit JUST down the road *wink wink*
The Numbers…(Armwood’s Main Passing Threats)
Specifically when you breakdown the passing numbers for Armwood it was Josh Grady (now at Vanderbilt) completing 62% of his passes (105-for-170) totaling 2, 168 yards, 24 TD’s and 6 Interceptions. The leading WR’s for the Hawks last year (min. of 10 receptions) were Alvin Bailey (34-604yds-6TD’s), Ronnie Thomas (28-628yds-10TD’s), Javonte Sneed (13-318yds-TD), Wade Edwards (11-215yds-TD) and Matt Jones (11-209yds-3TD’s.)
This season it’s been a little tougher to go 5-deep, but the leading receivers for Armwood (min. 10 receptions) are Wade Edwards (17-377-5TD’s), Alvin Bailey (21-363yds-2TD’s) and Javonte Sneed (18-353yds-7TD’s.) Ronnie Thomas has been sidelined all season due to an injury sustained during the Lincoln game, and Matt Jones (although he has 7-147-2TD’s) did not meet the 10 catch minimum. Quarterback Darryl Richardson has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency and is completing only 47% of his passes total 41-86, 641 yards, 7TD’s and 2 INT’s. his time has been split with Alvin Bailey running a more spread-oriented style offense completing 27 of 40 (67%) with 574 yards, 8TD’s and 2 INT’s as well.
The Analysis…
Here’s where it gets dicey for me. Armwood’s missing Ronnie Thomas so bad it’s not funny. Tough to say otherwise wouldn’t you agree? Of course you can make an excuse for Richardson since this is his 1st year in the system, he’s been nicked up with a shoulder and knee injury, as well as been inconsistent when he has had the opportunity to play 4 Quarters. Josh Grady’s graduation from HS didn’t exactly sneak up on them so they knew there would be growing pains.
It’s having to platoon him with Bailey and become a somewhat more predictable (yet somehow just as explosive) offensive that has allowed teams at this point in the playoffs to gameplan at a much more efficient rate. There’s really no surprises when Armwood’s got Bailey back there. It’s either him or Jones with a smattering of timely dumps to Wade Edwards. Bailey is one of the biggest playmakers in the state, but when you’ve got defenses that know EXACTLY what to expect by now it’s going to get difficult. Hence the reason I’ve said all along it’s about the defense.
The Numbers…(Plant’s Main Passing Threats)
The passing numbers for Plant from last season fall mostly on the arm of Phillip Ely now at Alabama. Ely was 183-292 (62%) for 2, 756 yards, 26 TD’s and 15 INT’s. This year the Panthers James Few hasn’t quite matched the number of completions to attempts as Ely, but he is still 144-213 (66%) and has 2, 331 yards, 29 TD’s and 13 INT’s. The leading receivers for the Panthers from 2010 were Antonio Crawford (52-656-7TD’s), Scott Graecen (45-505-7TD’s), Austin Aikens (35-820-6TD’s) and Daniel Casseli with 34 catches for 491 yards and 4 TD’s.
This year, it’s Casselli and Aikens once again on that list combining for 52 catches, 893 yards, and 14 TD’s. Newcomers to that list are Wesley Bullock with 28 catches for 399 yards and 4 TD’s along with Dereck Mann and Alex “Buddah” Jackson that have combined for 42 catches for 599 yards and 8 TD’s.
The Analysis…
There were a ton of questions from inside and out what lay ahead for the Panthers this 2011 Season. Don’t know if they’re all answered, but this has got be one of the most rewarding seasons for the fans and especially the staff. They’re playing much higher than what was anticipated, but again, let’s be reminded that they were made to look quite pedestrian vs. the Hawks Defense. The Panthers Passing Attack has a much different feel to it without a Murray, a Marve, or an Ely, yet the “Few” times I’ve seen them the results are there and then some.
The Numbers…(Armwood and Plant’s Rushing Offense)
Looking at the rushing attack for the Hawks from 2010, it was the Law Firm of Grady, Jones and Wilcox. The three combined for 44 TD’s. Jones led the way with 23TD’s on 176 carries totaling 1,300 yards. Grady was next with 14TD’s on 100 carries for 830 yards while Kyle Wilcox in just one season put up a very respectable 7TD’s on 65 carries and 616 yards. This year based on a minimum of 30 carries the Hawks leading rushers are Darryl Richardson (30-168-2), Alvin Bailey (51-582-4), Wade Edwards (62-419-8), and Jones (95-696-10.)
Plant’s rushing numbers last year were aided in large part to some guy named James Wilder. Number 32 rushed for 1,613 yards on 214 carries and added 22 TD’s to the mix. Charles Mann added 586 yards, Wesley Bullock 268, and Phillip Ely 157 each having 2 TD’s a piece. This year it’s Bullock leading the charge with 996 yards on 142 carries and 10 TD’s with Antonio Crawford adding 525 yards and 5 TD’s. The Panthers have also received a combined 420 yards rushing from QB’s Few and Aaron Banks.
The Analysis…
The one thing the Hawks can do on a consistent basis is line up and smack you right in the mouth. The main issues with them in this phase has been with the hogs up front ironically. It’s not about their size or their ability whatsoever. It’s began and ended with untimely (when are they NOT untimely) penalties that put the offense into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations or negating plays. I still think it’s a major problem for teams to look across and know that they’ve got to deal with the OL and Matt Jones 20-25 times per game. Again my point is that they have to get consistent is all.
Plant had Wilder and Antonio Crawford, but if you weren’t actively involved with that team week-in and week-out you probably didn’t know about Wesley Bullock. He’s become a feature back within the system and the little guy runs it with authority too. Plant’s major weakness is against the “big” teams like Armwood and one they could potentially face in Miramar when they MUST go one-dimensional. Last year it took 6 and 7 guys to bring the Wilder’s of the world down, but this year it’s different. Plant strives on balance. Balance more often that not wins just as many ballgames as talent when the numbers average out.
What about the Defense?…(Armwood)
Armwood’s Defense lost 4 of its Top 5 Tacklers (32 per game) in the form of Jacob Silber, DJ Hitchman, Jermaine McKinney, and David Tinsley. This hasn’t stopped them one ounce though. In fact, statistically they’re better. You look at guys like Sheldon Lewinson (6.5 tackles per game), Keionne Baines (11 tackles per game), and Allen Covington (7 tpg) along with Oklahoma Commit Eric Stryker and Mr. Secondary himself Leon McQuay III, and you’ve got a defense aside from a few hiccups that could hold college teams under 14 points. D1’s at that. Sheesh. I haven’t even mentioned guys like Warren Williams, Antonio McCollough, and Jarvis McCall. This is truly a historic defense. No questions asked.
Plant…(On Defense)
Guys like Matt Suarez, Scott Gracen, and Wilder are gone, (and those are huge shoes to fill) but you’ve got players like Mike Tate (14 tackles per game) along with Stanford Commit Drew Madhu, Reeves Rogers, and Tate Rogers (combined averaging over 16 tackles per) that have stepped in to fill the void. Guys like Antonio Crawford and Paris Bostick have stepped up their leadership roles. Dereck Mann has come along as a safety and on special teams too.
What to make of it?…
I think the easiest way to look at it is a case of expectations not met for a variety of reasons both positive and negative. We’ve come to expect certain things from our teams regardless of the level whether HSFB, collegiate, or the NFL. The expectations are rooted in the insatiable need to win and the desire to make sense or justify what’s going wrong or right in order to make us feel better about who were supporting. It doesn’t change.
However, the numbers suggest that through all of the smoke and mirrors, the hemming and hawing, the nail-biting and the bragging is that the elite teams tend to win consistently whether it be with superior talent alone or superior coaching alone, but the two cannot co-exist without the other. There has to be balanced achieved to some degree or else things can go the wrong way and in a hurry.
The numbers may read one thing to you, but they read something else to the next guy and so on. The most important thing at this stage in the season is that they keep winning. PERIOD. I think many of us (not all) can set aside our local differences and realize that a win for either team in Orlando is a win for Hillsborough County. Raheem Morris may think stats are for losers, but that one statistic that you don’t want to be a part of is the one that says you didn’t bring home a ring. That means technically you ARE a loser. Something this county, nor these teams are not.